World Reports

YEMEN AQAP will increase attacks on Emirati-backed troops in the South to exploit rising tensions between President Hadi and separatists

RUSSIA Al-Qaeda-affiliate’s claiming of Saint Petersburg bombing likely to increase threat of one-off Islamic State attack

PHILIPPINES Foiled attack on Bohol resort island indicates pro-Islamic State units’ growing ability and intent to strike beyond southern strongholds

CHINA Trump has positive first meeting with Xi Jinping on trade deficit and North Korea, but achieving solid progress will be more difficult

TURKEY Tempo of major militant attacks will slow ahead of vote but rate of violence likely to increase afterwards

REGIONAL Increased US targeting of al-Shabab in Somalia will sustain high threat to Western interests

INDIA Islamic State-inspired attack on passenger train points to gradually rising support, but risk of sophisticated attacks remains limited

IRAQ Increased air strikes and shelling in western Mosul will hasten progress against Islamic State but increase Sunni sympathy for group

REGIONAL Merged al-Qaeda affiliate in Mali will look to mark arrival with attack in coming months

SYRIA Operations to oust Islamic State from al-Bab will continue for at least several more weeks despite recent Turkish advances

MALAYSIA Jihadist threat to aviation remains low despite arrests of airport security guards for suspected links to Islamic State

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Disruption of alleged plot to attack beach bar in Umm al-Quwein shows jihadist threat will remain limited

LEBANON Failed attack on Beirut café suggests Islamic State will shift focus to soft targets due to limited capabilities and increased security

EGYPT Isolated protests and increased militancy both likely ahead of 25 January anniversary

AFGHANISTAN Death of five Emirati diplomats in Kandahar strike will not damage ties with UAE or significantly limit support for Taliban

YEMEN Regular jihadist attacks in South will undermine President Hadi’s position in fresh peace talks and so further prolong conflict

PAKISTAN Russian-backed projects will face Sunni militant threat as Government seeks to strengthen cooperation with Moscow

LIBYA Loss of Sirte will weaken Islamic State significantly, although group could attempt one-off major attack to protect credibility

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