World Reports

Security Institute and CSARN - An Exciting Alliance

Security Institute and CSARN - An Exciting Alliance

Afghanistan

AFGHANISTAN Taliban and Islamic State attacks against foreigners will stoke jihadist competition and raise tempo of violence in Kabul

AFGHANISTAN Taliban and Islamic State attacks against foreigners will stoke jihadist competition and raise tempo of violence in Kabul

AFGHANISTAN Taliban and Islamic State attacks against foreigners will stoke jihadist competition and raise tempo of violence in Kabul

Iraq

IRAQ Suicide bombings in Baghdad show Islamic State’s intent to increase violence in run-up to elections

INDIA Escalation of jihadist propaganda likely to slightly increase risk of sympathiser attacks, including around key dates like Republic Day

Iran

IRAN Ongoing protests will lead to slightly increased risk of attacks on police and oil facilities in South, and Kurdish militancy in North-East

Russia

RUSSIA Disrupted plots show that security forces likely to limit scale of Islamic State threat

Mena Regional

REGIONAL / MENA Al-Qaeda bid to exploit Muslim anger over Trump’s Jerusalem move increases risk of attack against Western targets over coming months

SYRIA Tahrir al-Sham’s pragmatic approach may prompt some hardliners to defect to al-Qaeda-linked group, but will not weaken coalition

Yemen

YEMEN Aden Governor’s resignation highlights UAE’s efforts to increase influence, which will fuel southern security deterioration

Pakistan

PAKISTAN Splits within Taliban movement may somewhat reduce tempo of group’s activity in coming months, but further attacks remain likely

Thailand

THAILAND Officials’ warnings over security likely intended to boost junta’s legitimacy and do not reflect increased threat

BANGLADESH Airline plot shows local militant threat will persist, but direct Islamic State influence in the country likely to decline over coming year

REGIONAL King’s concessions to Rif protesters will preserve Morocco’s stability but jihadists could exploit social discontent to attract recruits

PHILIPPINES Deaths of pro-Islamic State leaders in Marawi will only briefly disrupt groups’ ability to win recruits in South

NIGERIA Mass trial of suspected Boko Haram militants will undermine Abuja’s efforts to tackle the group

WEST AFRICA Killing of US troops in Niger underscores threat of jihadist attacks against foreign interests in Sahel region, including capital cities

ISRAEL-PALESTINE Deadly settlement attack likely carried out by lone individual, but hardliners frustrated by unity deal may launch rockets from Gaza

IRAQ Massive Islamic State attack on restaurant and checkpoint underlines elevated threat to Shia around Ashura

AFGHANISTAN Kabul mosque attack underlines persistent Islamic State threat to Shia, which could grow further as group seeks to maintain status

MYANMAR Major military offensives in northern Rakhine State will not provoke significant Rohingya militancy in Yangon and central areas for now

WEST AFRICA Attack on restaurant in Burkina Faso capital underlines jihadist threat to foreign interests across the Sahel

MEXICO Increasing violence in celebrity retreat of Los Cabos shows criminal influence spreading to previously unaffected tourist areas

REGIONAL US lifting of restrictions on electronic devices on airlines shows improved security but militant intent to target aviation remains

INDIA While US annual report on India notes increased militancy in Kashmir, threat from jihadist groups will remain limited

EGYPT Jihadist attack at Red Sea resort points to elevated risk of attacks against foreigners in response to recent Islamic State losses

LEBANON Heightened risk of further Islamic State-linked violence following Army raids in North-East but future attacks likely to be isolated

SAUDI ARABIA Disruption of plot to target Mecca Grand Mosque reflects security forces’ effectiveness at limiting jihadist capabilities

JORDAN German military redeployment to Jordan shows country will remain attractive Islamic State target despite group’s low capabilities

IRAN Iran’s response to Tehran attack shows threat from Kurdish jihadists, but Government’s approach will help limit escalation risk

NIGERIA Fresh militant threats highlight fragile peace in Niger Delta but new groups lack capability to launch co-ordinated campaign of attacks

INDONESIA Suicide bombing in Jakarta prompts Government action against hardliners, but moves are mainly symbolic and will have limited effect

BLACK BANNERS MONTHLY Manchester bombing signals Islamic State’s intent to operate at higher tempo in Western Europe over Ramadan

PAKISTAN Islamic State suicide attack in Baluchistan points to increased threat of jihadist violence in urban centres during Ramadan

REGIONAL Jihadists will look to conduct attack in Tunisia during Ramadan to try to provoke instability amid rising public anger over economy

AFGHANISTAN New US plan to increase troop numbers could slow Taliban advances and will prevent large-scale collapse of Government authority

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